The case for non-independence and detente
In my previous posts , I have discussed Taiwan's military vulnerability and its untenable defense position. Taiwan's defense is a house of cards, completely dependent on a lukewarm alliance with the US. Though I may enjoy reminiscing about the old days and choose to mourn their passing, we must face the reality that the KMT brand of Chinese nationalism is dead, and with it, the unifying factor that could have held a decent, motivated army together. As a poster once succinctly put it on Forumosa, "Taiwan couldn't even raise a troop of Cub Scouts." What are we to do?
The DPP decision has been to stand tall and proud in the wild seas of international politics. Attempt to take the high moral ground, maintain relations with the few countries that recognize the R.O.C., continue fruitless attempts to get Taiwan into international organizations, and annoy the mainland Chinese whenever domestic political fortunes need a boost. Taiwan has become the philosopher beggar of the international scene, claiming to be a poor, free democracy under threat from the big bad PRC. I believe the strategy boils down to guilt: other countries (America) must protect Taiwan because it is so good and moral. A later post will provide my reasons for why I think this is not an effective strategy.
Without the Americans, direct conflict is no longer a viable option for the Taiwanese side; the country cannot match China's military spending, troop numbers or motivation The mainland side also would also prefer not to fight, though it has been willing to suffer the consequences of going against international opinion before. We have seen such a stalemate play out before in international politics: the cold war, which was arguably won with a policy of détente.
When direct conflict was no longer an permanent solution for the US and USSR because of potential nuclear annihilation, the US developed a strategy of détente. It's not rocket science - just keep the other side talking and concentrating on the small details, and at least they won't attack you. Trade little things, and make agreements, no matter how trivial they are to the main issues. This requires actual negotiation, and a willingness to compromise on hard issues. Obviously you can't let the other side know that you're stalling, so you need to give up some real things. You also have to stop living in rhetoric and respect the other side's belief that it will win.
This means that you have to give up things that are very offensive to the other side, like those first-strike missiles or your policy of Taiwanization. I'm not talking about returning to the old ways, repressive ways. Rather, I mean showing a willingness to compromise and exercising a bit of domestic prudence. By giving up on some sore issues and forging links, you buy the security and stability of the nation. However, the DPP needs these divisive issues and cannot give them up - they are the source of their political power, stumped up every time another election comes around. That's why the CCP won't even talk to the DPP president.
This is where the KMT's so-called 'pro-unification' stance comes in. It's not pro-unification - it's just against the suicide move otherwise known as declaring independence. It's smart, which something I expect from the KMT. It's badly implemented and misunderstood at the local level, which is unfortunately also something I've come to expect from the KMT. Wild fantasies like "Ma and the hidden agenda" are far off the mark, and only serve to inflame people's emotions. They're too overeducated for that, and they are not traitors because of their heritage and their desire for a more open policy. If the KMT are traitors for suggesting a different course, then all the people executed in 2/28 and the White Terror were really traitors after all, and deserved their fates.
The most effective defense decisions that Taiwan can make those are that get it to a negotiating table. Taiwan needs at least pretend to consider the idea of fitting in with the rest of China. That will be enough to mollify the mainland and ensure Taiwan's security. Wether you like the KMT or not, they are the only party in this country that can get us to that negotiating table.
The DPP decision has been to stand tall and proud in the wild seas of international politics. Attempt to take the high moral ground, maintain relations with the few countries that recognize the R.O.C., continue fruitless attempts to get Taiwan into international organizations, and annoy the mainland Chinese whenever domestic political fortunes need a boost. Taiwan has become the philosopher beggar of the international scene, claiming to be a poor, free democracy under threat from the big bad PRC. I believe the strategy boils down to guilt: other countries (America) must protect Taiwan because it is so good and moral. A later post will provide my reasons for why I think this is not an effective strategy.
Without the Americans, direct conflict is no longer a viable option for the Taiwanese side; the country cannot match China's military spending, troop numbers or motivation The mainland side also would also prefer not to fight, though it has been willing to suffer the consequences of going against international opinion before. We have seen such a stalemate play out before in international politics: the cold war, which was arguably won with a policy of détente.
When direct conflict was no longer an permanent solution for the US and USSR because of potential nuclear annihilation, the US developed a strategy of détente. It's not rocket science - just keep the other side talking and concentrating on the small details, and at least they won't attack you. Trade little things, and make agreements, no matter how trivial they are to the main issues. This requires actual negotiation, and a willingness to compromise on hard issues. Obviously you can't let the other side know that you're stalling, so you need to give up some real things. You also have to stop living in rhetoric and respect the other side's belief that it will win.
This means that you have to give up things that are very offensive to the other side, like those first-strike missiles or your policy of Taiwanization. I'm not talking about returning to the old ways, repressive ways. Rather, I mean showing a willingness to compromise and exercising a bit of domestic prudence. By giving up on some sore issues and forging links, you buy the security and stability of the nation. However, the DPP needs these divisive issues and cannot give them up - they are the source of their political power, stumped up every time another election comes around. That's why the CCP won't even talk to the DPP president.
This is where the KMT's so-called 'pro-unification' stance comes in. It's not pro-unification - it's just against the suicide move otherwise known as declaring independence. It's smart, which something I expect from the KMT. It's badly implemented and misunderstood at the local level, which is unfortunately also something I've come to expect from the KMT. Wild fantasies like "Ma and the hidden agenda" are far off the mark, and only serve to inflame people's emotions. They're too overeducated for that, and they are not traitors because of their heritage and their desire for a more open policy. If the KMT are traitors for suggesting a different course, then all the people executed in 2/28 and the White Terror were really traitors after all, and deserved their fates.
The most effective defense decisions that Taiwan can make those are that get it to a negotiating table. Taiwan needs at least pretend to consider the idea of fitting in with the rest of China. That will be enough to mollify the mainland and ensure Taiwan's security. Wether you like the KMT or not, they are the only party in this country that can get us to that negotiating table.
posted by Taiwan's Other Side at 10:10 PM
1 Comments:
Oh wow, whoever wrote this is just too stupid. First of all, most older generations of Taiwanese are pro-unification. Nationalism is very strong in East Asia, and that is also why for most South Koreans, they want to reunite with the North. Furthermore, KMT was very pro-unification. In fact, after KMT fled to Taiwan, it never stopped asking help from the US to make plans and provide weapons for it to take back the mainland. Even in later 1980s, Taiwan's government was still very pro-unification. In the former Taiwan constitution, even Outer Mongolia was recognized as part of China - the Republic of China, including Outer Mongolia, mainland, Macau, HK, and Taiwan! (constitution changed to without Outer Mongolia in the 80s, in many older maps published in Taiwan, all of the above areas are under the ROC) In 1984, Taiwan published a set of stamps, and along them there's one that has a ROC map on it, which included all of the above areaswith the words "China's Reunification under the Three Principles of the People". (http://cgi.ebay.com.hk/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&category=91579&item=220063668611#ebayphotohosting) Since the goal of reunification was projected, it has grown into a great patriotic movement. The famous Grand Alliance, was formed on October 22, 1982 in Taipei.
I still have a lot more to say, but that will not help a lot if the owner of this blog does not read any books and no nothing about history.
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